The model's record
Every price here was published before kickoff and cannot be edited after. This page asks one question of it: when the model said a thing was N percent likely, how often did it happen.
Match outcome
2103 predictions on 701 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 14 Aug 2026. 57 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 14 | 6.2% | 14.3% | +8.1 |
| 10 to 20% | 129 | 15.7% | 17.8% | +2.1 |
| 20 to 30% | 967 | 26.4% | 28.3% | +2.0 |
| 30 to 40% | 435 | 34.1% | 33.8% | -0.3 |
| 40 to 50% | 362 | 44.5% | 39.5% | -5.0 |
| 50 to 60% | 125 | 54.3% | 48.8% | -5.5 |
| 60 to 70% | 50 | 63.9% | 70.0% | +6.1 |
| 70 to 80% | 15 | 72.9% | 73.3% | +0.4 |
| 80 to 90% | 6 | 83.6% | 83.3% | -0.2 |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Both teams to score
1102 predictions on 551 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 28 Aug 2026. 38 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0 |
| 10 to 20% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 to 30% | 9 | 25.9% | 33.3% | +7.4 |
| 30 to 40% | 45 | 37.6% | 42.2% | +4.6 |
| 40 to 50% | 483 | 46.5% | 40.2% | -6.4 |
| 50 to 60% | 507 | 53.3% | 59.4% | +6.1 |
| 60 to 70% | 45 | 62.4% | 57.8% | -4.6 |
| 70 to 80% | 9 | 74.1% | 66.7% | -7.4 |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 90 to 100% | 2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Over/under
1102 predictions on 551 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 28 Aug 2026. 38 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 4 | 1.0% | 50.0% | +49.0 |
| 10 to 20% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 to 30% | 1 | 25.5% | 0.0% | -25.5 |
| 30 to 40% | 81 | 36.3% | 34.6% | -1.7 |
| 40 to 50% | 465 | 46.0% | 44.1% | -1.9 |
| 50 to 60% | 465 | 54.0% | 55.9% | +1.9 |
| 60 to 70% | 81 | 63.7% | 65.4% | +1.7 |
| 70 to 80% | 1 | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 90 to 100% | 4 | 99.0% | 50.0% | -49.0 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Below this line the ladder changes shape. Correct score is priced in six unequal bands, and its cells are made differently.
Correct score
Every cell here is a raw joint probability with no per-cell calibration standing behind it.
32938 predictions on 547 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 26 Aug 2026. 231 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1% | 23359 | 0.1% | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| 1 to 2% | 2196 | 1.5% | 2.0% | +0.5 |
| 2 to 5% | 3115 | 3.3% | 3.6% | +0.3 |
| 5 to 10% | 3087 | 7.3% | 6.7% | -0.7 |
| 10 to 15% | 1074 | 12.2% | 10.5% | -1.7 |
| 15% and above | 107 | 20.6% | 10.3% | -10.3 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.