The model's record
Every price here was published before kickoff and cannot be edited after. This page asks one question of it: when the model said a thing was N percent likely, how often did it happen.
Match outcome
1152 predictions on 384 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 14 Aug 2026. 54 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 9 | 4.8% | 22.2% | +17.4 |
| 10 to 20% | 52 | 15.4% | 17.3% | +1.9 |
| 20 to 30% | 538 | 26.3% | 28.8% | +2.5 |
| 30 to 40% | 255 | 34.1% | 32.9% | -1.2 |
| 40 to 50% | 198 | 44.5% | 41.4% | -3.1 |
| 50 to 60% | 67 | 53.9% | 44.8% | -9.2 |
| 60 to 70% | 22 | 64.0% | 68.2% | +4.2 |
| 70 to 80% | 7 | 74.0% | 57.1% | -16.9 |
| 80 to 90% | 4 | 84.7% | 75.0% | -9.7 |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Both teams to score
468 predictions on 234 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 28 Aug 2026. 36 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0 |
| 10 to 20% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 to 30% | 6 | 24.9% | 33.3% | +8.5 |
| 30 to 40% | 15 | 37.6% | 46.7% | +9.0 |
| 40 to 50% | 206 | 46.7% | 38.8% | -7.8 |
| 50 to 60% | 216 | 53.2% | 60.6% | +7.5 |
| 60 to 70% | 15 | 62.4% | 53.3% | -9.0 |
| 70 to 80% | 6 | 75.1% | 66.7% | -8.5 |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 90 to 100% | 2 | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Over/under
468 predictions on 234 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 28 Aug 2026. 36 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 3 | 0.0% | 66.7% | +66.7 |
| 10 to 20% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 20 to 30% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 30 to 40% | 32 | 36.1% | 34.4% | -1.7 |
| 40 to 50% | 199 | 46.1% | 43.7% | -2.4 |
| 50 to 60% | 199 | 53.9% | 56.3% | +2.4 |
| 60 to 70% | 32 | 63.9% | 65.6% | +1.7 |
| 70 to 80% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 90 to 100% | 3 | 100.0% | 33.3% | -66.7 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.
Below this line the ladder changes shape. Correct score is priced in six unequal bands, and its cells are made differently.
Correct score
Every cell here is a raw joint probability with no per-cell calibration standing behind it.
16326 predictions on 273 fixtures across eight leagues, settled since 26 Aug 2026. 1058 await settlement, which runs on Mondays. 0 were void and are not counted.
| Priced | Predictions | Mean priced | Happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1% | 11582 | 0.1% | 0.3% | +0.1 |
| 1 to 2% | 1088 | 1.5% | 2.3% | +0.8 |
| 2 to 5% | 1515 | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.1 |
| 5 to 10% | 1538 | 7.3% | 6.6% | -0.7 |
| 10 to 15% | 547 | 12.2% | 10.6% | -1.6 |
| 15% and above | 56 | 21.7% | 7.1% | -14.6 |
Above the line, the outcome happened more often than priced. Below it, less often.
Filled point: at least 30 predictions. Open ring: fewer.